Markets were buzzing with crucial US economic data and a high-stakes geopolitical summit. Here’s your JDR Securities breakdown!
Inflation’s Mixed Signals & Fed Bets
Aug 12: July US CPI hit. Headline inflation was stable, but core CPI (excluding food/energy) unexpectedly accelerated to 3.1% – a 5-month high! This sticky core inflation is linked to tariffs. Initially, markets reacted with “rate cut euphoria,” sending equities soaring & the US Dollar (DXY) tumbling.
Aug 14: The July Producer Price Index (PPI) surged, far exceeding forecasts. This hotter-than-expected PPI confirmed tariffs are driving up producer costs, tempering aggressive Fed rate cut bets & giving the US Dollar a rebound. The Fed faces a tough balancing act!
Gold & Geopolitical Watch
Gold saw price swings, correcting after President Trump clarified that gold would not be tariffed. Its movements remain sensitive to inflation dynamics and geopolitical shifts.
Today, Aug 15, all eyes are on the highly anticipated Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Initial market optimism for de-escalation (seen in falling oil prices) could reverse sharply if the summit fails to yield a concrete peace agreement.
- US Dollar (DXY): Initially weakened post-CPI, but rebounded strongly after the hot PPI report, as aggressive Fed easing bets were reined in.
- EUR/USD: Generally appreciated against the dollar, benefiting from DXY’s initial weakness.
- GBP/USD: Showed surprising resilience and upward movement, capitalizing on the dollar’s weakness.
- Gold (XAU/USD): After its volatility, Gold consolidated. Its safe-haven appeal remains sensitive to both inflation and geopolitical developments.
Key Technical Levels for Friday, August 15: - DXY: Resistance ~98.48. Support ~98.00.
- EUR/USD: Resistance ~1.170. Support ~1.158-1.160.
- GBP/USD: Resistance ~1.3584. Support ~1.3500.
- XAU/USD (Gold): Resistance ~ $3,355 (100-hour SMA). Support ~ $3,330.
What’s Next?
Expect continued volatility! The tug-of-war between inflation concerns & rate cut hopes, plus the Trump-Putin summit outcome, will shape market direction.
Stay vigilant!
Stay informed with JDR Securities for expert insights and navigate these dynamic markets with confidence.
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