The trading week of November 17-21 has been defined by the market’s attempt to price in a “mixed” reality following the end of the US government shutdown. The release of delayed labor data on Thursday has clarified the picture: the US economy is bending but not breaking, giving the Federal Reserve little reason to rush into aggressive rate cuts.
Here is your breakdown of the fundamentals driving price action and the critical levels to watch as we head into the weekend.
The Fundamental Picture
Labor Data Reality Check
Thursday’s “data dump” was the pivotal moment of the week. We finally received the delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls, which showed the economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly beating the pessimistic forecasts of around 50,000. Simultaneously, Initial Jobless Claims for the week came in at 220,000, lower than the expected 227,000.
However, the data wasn’t entirely one-sided. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest level since late 2021.
The Takeaway: The labor market remains resilient despite the recent fiscal chaos. The “stronger-than-feared” hiring numbers have strengthened the US Dollar (DXY) as traders unwind bets on a December rate cut. The market is realizing the Fed will likely keep rates steady to ensure inflation doesn’t reignite, reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative.
Gold’s Struggle at High Altitude
This mixed data—resilient hiring vs. rising unemployment—has trapped Gold in a consolidation pattern. While the long-term bull run remains intact, the immediate pressure is downward. The stronger Dollar and stable Treasury yields are capping XAU/USD, preventing it from breaking through the $4,130 resistance.
Market Movements & Technical Outlook
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The Dollar has found fresh demand following the labor release. It is successfully holding above the 99.50 zone and is testing psychological resistance.
- Trend: Bullish Short-term.
- Key Resistance: 100.20 – 100.40. A break here confirms the market has fully priced out a near-term rate cut, opening the path to 101.00.
- Key Support: 99.40. This level must hold to keep the bullish structure alive. A close below here suggests the market views the unemployment uptick (4.4%) as the more significant data point.
EUR/USD
The Euro is suffering from the diverging economic outlooks. While the US labor market shows life, Eurozone data remains stagnant.
- Trend: Bearish Pressure.
- Critical Resistance: 1.1605. Bears are likely to defend this level vigorously.
- Critical Support: 1.1510. A breach of this support would be technically significant, potentially triggering a slide toward 1.1450 next week.
GBP/USD
Sterling is trading heavy, weighed down by the broader Dollar strength.
- Trend: Neutral to Bearish.
- Critical Resistance: 1.3170.
- Critical Support: 1.3030 – 1.3050. Watch this zone carefully into the Friday close; a breakdown here would damage the monthly bullish structure.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is consolidating its massive 2025 gains. The rejection at $4,132 earlier in the week was validated by the solid jobs data.
- Trend: Corrective / Consolidation.
- Critical Resistance: $4,125. Bulls need a daily close above this level to restart the momentum.
- Critical Support: $4,049. This is the immediate “floor.” A break here exposes the $4,000 psychological level (specifically the $3,987 Fibonacci zone).
Trader’s Note for the Weekend
The “mixed” nature of the labor report (strong hiring but 4.4% unemployment) may cause choppy price action as liquidity thins out on Friday. Be wary of “fake-outs” near the 100.00 level on DXY. If Gold closes below $4,050, expect the correction to deepen early next week.
