This week, the financial market narrative was driven by one massive event: the end of the record-breaking 43-day U.S. government shutdown. After the House passed a Senate-brokered funding bill on Wednesday, President Trump signed it into law, formally reopening the government.
Paradoxically, this resolution was a negative catalyst for the U.S. Dollar. Here’s a condensed recap of what happened and what it means for the market.
The Dollar’s “Safe-Haven” Bid Evaporates
For 43 days, the U.S. Dollar benefited from a “safe-haven” bid as global investors grew nervous about the political gridlock. The moment a resolution was passed, that safe-haven premium began to unwind, and the dollar sold off.
The market’s focus pivoted instantly from political risk to the economic damage inflicted by the lengthy impasse. This leads to the week’s second major theme: the “data drought.”
We are “Flying Blind” in a Data Drought
A critical consequence of the shutdown is that federal agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) were also shuttered. This means we have been “flying blind” without the key economic reports that drive the market.
- No Official Data: The official October Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports were never released.
- A Permanent Blind Spot: Reports on Thursday confirmed that because the underlying surveys were never conducted, the October jobs and inflation reports will likely be lost forever. We are now operating in a “data fog.”
- Private Data Fills the Void: With no official numbers, the market has become hyper-sensitive to “second-tier” private data, which has been uniformly negative. A new high-frequency weekly ADP report on Tuesday showed an average loss of 11,250 private-sector jobs per week, reinforcing fears from last week’s catastrophic Challenger Job Cuts report.
This grim private data, combined with the clear economic drag from the shutdown, has convinced the market of one thing: the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates at its next meeting in December.
How FX Majors Reacted (Nov 10-14, 2025)
This new “dovish Fed” narrative created clear winners and losers among the major currencies.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The Dollar’s rally failed at the critical 100.00 psychological resistance level. With the safe-haven bid gone and rate-cut bets rising, the path of least resistance has turned lower.
- EUR/USD: The Euro was the week’s outperformer. It benefited from broad U.S. Dollar weakness and got an added boost from its own positive data surprise—the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey on Tuesday, which beat forecasts. The pair found strong support at the key 1.1500 handle and is now testing resistance on its way to 1.1700.
- GBP/USD: The Pound was the “weak link” this week. It was weighed down by its own bad news, which overshadowed the Dollar’s weakness. A UK labor report on Tuesday showed unemployment rising to a four-year high. This poor data has cemented market bets that the Bank of England will also cut rates in December, creating a “race to the bottom” for the pair. It remains trapped between support at 1.3100 and resistance at 1.3200.
- USD/JPY: The pair’s long-running bullish trend has stalled. The primary reason to buy USD/JPY—a strong Fed vs. a weak Bank of Japan—is “fading” as the market prices in U.S. rate cuts. The pair has been “coiling” in a tight range and has failed to break the critical 155.00 resistance level.
Cautions as the Week Wraps
As we close the week, sentiment remains fragile. Thursday saw a significant “risk-off” session, with investors selling high-flying tech and “AI-bubble” stocks and rotating into defensive sectors.
Furthermore, there is a growing disconnect between the market, which is aggressively pricing in a December rate cut, and several Fed speakers this week, who have sounded cautious about acting too quickly in a “data fog.” This “data drought” isn’t over, and this uncertainty will continue to drive volatility.
