If the markets feel listless today, it isn’t just the pre-holiday lull—it’s the “data void.”
Traders expecting the traditional “Wednesday Data Dump” before Thanksgiving were left empty-handed. Due to the administrative backlog following the shutdown that ended on November 12, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has confirmed that key releases—including the PCE Price Index and Q3 GDP—have been pushed to December.
Without fresh fundamental inputs to challenge the narrative, the market is effectively running on autopilot, respecting the “Higher for Longer” Dollar trend established by last week’s jobs report.
As liquidity drains away for the Thanksgiving break (US markets closed Thursday, early close Friday), here is the technical reality check.
- The Catalyst is Missing: The Dollar (DXY) is holding its ground not because of new strength today, but because there is no data to contradict last week’s bullish breakout.
- Liquidity Trap: With institutional desks closing early, the thin volume means price action is less reliable. A sudden move in the next 24 hours is likely “noise,” not a trend change.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The Index is consolidating near the highs, respecting the bullish structure but lacking the volume to push further.
- Trend: Bullish Consolidation.
- Resistance (The Ceiling): 100.50. The DXY has failed to breach this level today. It remains the key barrier for the bulls.
- Support (The Floor): 99.80. As long as price holds above this level, the post-NFP rally remains intact. A dip here is likely just profit-taking.
EUR/USD
The Euro is trapped. It cannot rally without US weakness, and it cannot sell off further without fresh Eurozone catalysts.
- Trend: Sideways / Bearish Bias.
- Critical Resistance: 1.1560. The pair has been unable to sustain any move above this intraday high.
- Critical Support: 1.1510. This level is being tested repeatedly. Warning: If this breaks on thin volume Friday, it opens a vacuum down to 1.1450.
GBP/USD
Sterling remains the weakest of the majors, sitting precariously on major structural support.
- Trend: Heavy.
- Critical Support: 1.3030. This is the line in the sand. We have tested this zone multiple times this week. A daily close below 1.3030 confirms a breakdown.
- Resistance: 1.3120. Bears remain in control below this level.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is stuck in a tight range ($4,050 – $4,085) as traders await the rescheduled inflation data in December.
- Trend: Neutral / Range-bound.
- Resistance: $4,085. Gold needs a significant catalyst (not arriving this week) to clear this.
- Key Support: $4,049. This level has held firm all week. It is the definitive “hard deck” for the current correction.
Trader’s Brief
The “No-Trade” Zone: Thursday (Nov 27) is a US market holiday. Friday (Nov 28) is a half-day with historically erratic liquidity.
The Play: The most prudent move is to respect the 1.1510 (EUR) and 1.3030 (GBP) support levels. If you are not already positioned, forcing a trade in this low-liquidityv environment is unnecessary risk. Wait for the December data cycle to resume next week.
