This week, traders are navigating one of the most unusual environments in recent memory. We have two major forces pulling the markets in different directions.
First, the U.S. government shutdown has now entered its 36th day, making it the longest in American history. More than just a political headline, this has a real-world impact on traders: we are “flying blind.” The shutdown has halted the release of crucial economic data, forcing investors and the Federal Reserve alike to make decisions in a fog of uncertainty.
Second, the market is still digesting the aftershocks of last week’s “hawkish cut” from the Federal Reserve. When Fed Chair Powell pushed back against the market’s expectation for another rate cut in December, it sent the U.S. dollar soaring.
With no new data to guide us, technical levels and central bank sentiment have become more important than ever.
Here are the key currency pairs and levels we are watching for the week of November 3, 2025.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar remains the star of the show, pushing a six-month high as it benefits from the Fed’s cautious stance.
- Key Level to Watch: The 100.00 mark is the major psychological battleground. The DXY has been probing this level, and a decisive break above it would be a strong bullish signal.
- Outlook: While some short-term indicators suggest the dollar is “overbought” and could be due for a minor pullback, the underlying trend remains strong. If the index can clear the 100.00 hurdle, the next major target for bulls is 101.00.
GBP/USD (British Pound)
The pound is the big mover to the downside this week, hitting fresh seven-month lows around 1.3024. All eyes are on the Bank of England (BoE), which has a rate decision on Thursday. The market is increasingly betting that the BoE will be forced to cut rates, and this has put heavy selling pressure on the currency.
- Key Support: The pound has broken below its 200-day moving average, a significant bearish sign. The immediate support level to watch is 1.30900. A break below this could open the door for a deeper slide.
- Key Resistance: On any short-term bounces, look for sellers to re-emerge around 1.3150.
USD/JPY (Japanese Yen)
This pair is a classic tug-of-war. The U.S. dollar’s strength is pulling it up, while the Japanese yen’s “safe-haven” appeal during stock market wobbles has pulled it down. The resulting battle is happening at a critical pivot point.
- Key Pivot Level: 153.27. This was a previous resistance level, and now the market is testing it as new support.
- Bullish Case: If 153.27 holds, buyers will likely take control and target the 156.00 handle.
- Bearish Case: If the pair breaks below 153.27, it would be a sign of weakness, with potential targets at 152.00 or 151.00.
EUR/USD (Euro)
The euro has been much quieter, largely stuck in a range while the dollar and pound see most of the action. The technical picture is simple and clear.
- Key Support: 1.1500.
- Key Resistance: 1.1600.
The direction of the breakout from this range will likely set the tone for the next major move.
AUD/USD (Australian Dollar)
The Aussie has been a surprise performer, holding its ground thanks to a “hawkish hold” from its own central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA trimmed its rate cut forecasts, giving the currency a boost.
- Key Pivot Level: The pair is currently consolidating around the 0.6533 mark.
- Support: 0.65170.
- Resistance: 0.65561.
